Stressed about Savings? Divide and Conquer!

Piggy Banks

JamesCube (Pixabay)

Trying to decide what to do with the money you have can be stressful.  There are plenty of people willing to “help” you invest your money, but they rarely agree on how.  Just leaving it the bank doesn’t seem right, but neither does losing it all in the market.  I have found that dividing my money into two parts reduces the stress and gives me confidence.

Protection vs. Opportunity

There are two very different points-of-view when it comes to investing money.  It’s possible to look at money as something to protect for some point in the future.  It is also possible to look at it as an opportunity for gain.  Both perspectives have benefits, but they require that we invest in different ways.

When we look at money from a protection point of view, we want to make sure that we don’t lose it.  Our concern is not about future gains, but about having something at a specific time.

When we look at money from an opportunity point of view, we are willing to wait in order to get a big gain.  We’re hoping to use money in order to get significantly more, but we can’t really control the timing of it.

These two points of view, are at odds with one another.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t have your cake and eat it too.  We can’t protect something and risk it at the same time.  When we choose opportunity, we also choose to risk not having our money at a specific point in time.

Many of the professionals in the financial world are more focused on opportunity than they are on protection.  It’s good to keep that in mind when you seek help.  If your intention is to protect, you probably won’t need professional help.  With a little education, you should do just fine on your own.

Insurance vs. Investments

Those who intend to preserve their money are better off thinking about it like they would insurance.  That’s because when you preserve, you are saving what you’ve already earned.   You’re just making sure that it’s there for you when you need it.  A preservation mentality is helpful when you are saving for specific things.  Those things might include maintaining or buying a car.  Other things include buying a house, paying for college or for paying for retirement.  Preservation is good for those things that you already know that you will probably need.

When you want to use your money to take advantage of growth opportunities, insurance doesn’t really make sense.  That’s because you’ve accepted the risk that your money won’t necessarily be there at a specific point in time.

Promise vs. Potential

When we make a decision about where we put our money, we need to decide whether we care more about having a promise that our money will be available, or that we have the potential to gain when opportunity arises.

These kinds of financial arrangements are at odds with each other but they both have their place.  If there was no potential for gain, there wouldn’t be a way to have something to preserve.  If there was no place to save your money, how could you keep what you have gained for a time that you need it?

Determine Your Timing Related Risk Capacity

When I say “timing related risk,” I mean the kind of risk you expose yourself to by not having money when you need to use it.  Considering your timing related risk capacity is a good way to decide whether you should preserve or speculate.

source: nattanan23 (Pixabay)

If you don’t have any savings at all, then you are at risk whenever something doesn’t go right.  You really don’t have any capacity for timing risk.  If you have no extra money and your car’s transmission fails, you would immediately be in financial trouble.  It’s important to have emergency savings and not having it definitely qualifies a timing related risk.

There are other timing related risks you may have.  Retirement is an important one.  You can calculate the amount of time that remains before you plan to retire and the amount of money you might need for the rest of your life from that point.  These projections expose a risk.  If your retirement money isn’t there when you need it, you will probably suffer.  Other things have timing related risk too, like buying a house, paying for college or paying for family vacations.

When we think about risk, we need to consider what we would feel like if our money wasn’t there when we need it.  If the money you are thinking about isn’t going to be needed for a particular time in the future, then opportunity investing is probably a good idea for you.  If you know what the money is intended for, then preservation investing would probably be a better idea.

A Helpful Separation

I have found it helpful to separate my money into two distinct parts.  One is the part I intend to preserve as savings.  That part includes my emergency savings, the part of my retirement savings that would pay for my basic retirement needs and any other amount of money that I would rather preserve than take risks with.  These may include funds I intend to use as an inheritance or a donation.

The other part is for investments that I believe will eventually be profitable.  For these investments, I accept that I don’t know when they will be profitable and I am willing wait.

Less Stress

By taking your savings and setting it aside as something you intend to preserve, you don’t have to worry about how much money it makes.  As long as it keeps up with inflation, it will still be there for you.  The rest you can use to do some investing.  That’s the part you may want to have an investment professional help you with.  If things don’t go quite as well you expected them to go, you can rest assured that your savings is still intact.

Thinking of Retirement as Standard of Living Insurance

Professor Zvi Bodie of Boston University said something that really shaped my thinking about retirement savings.  He said that we should think about retirement savings more like we think about insurance.  When I tried that, I realized that it caused me to challenge the advice about retirement that I often hear and read about.  It exposed something that I was seeing that I knew didn’t seem right as I was planning for retirement.

Assurances are not Guarantees

Fund managers want you to invest in their products, but they don’t give guarantees.  They are careful to have disclaimers so that we understand that we could actually lose our money.  That’s worth taking time to consider.  Professor Bodie says that these management companies are in a far better position to understand risk management than the common person, yet they refuse to guarantee that you will even have your retirement savings when you need it.  They give assurances, but they refuse to give a guarantee.  Professor Bodie says that the reason they don’t give a guarantee, is that they can’t.  Instead, they leave the risk of the investment with the person who is least knowledgeable about what they are doing.

A good thing to ask ourselves is: “Why can’t they give a guarantee when they are managing the money?”  The answer is: “Because the investments they use are risky and they know it.”

Professor Zvi Bodie does a great job of explaining the problem here in his video:

Is it really Savings?

I think that there is terminology that retirement fund salespeople should not be using.  They often refer to the money that we put into mutual funds or the stock market and other volatile investments, as our “retirement savings.” In my opinion, the money we are putting into those kinds of investments are actually “retirement ventures.”  Since no one is committed to maintaining a specific amount of money in those accounts, I don’t think that it can legitimately be called: “savings.”

When we use the word “savings” we naturally think of money in a piggy bank or money in a banking institution.  In those places, our money is insured in some way.  Our piggy bank is locked in our house and our bank accounts even have deposit insurance from the federal government.  We naturally expect that when we return to our bank, we will find the same amount or more than we left in it, but that’s not how most “retirement savings” accounts work in my experience.

Unfortunately, we need to be on guard when money managers use the term: “savings.”

Guaranteeing our Savings

There are ways to guarantee savings, and some of them come at a cost.  We know that insurance has a cost because many of us have insurance for other things like healthcare,  our cars or a house.  Insurance costs something because someone else is bearing a risk for us.  When we think of something as important as our retirement, doesn’t it make sense to insure that it will meet our basic needs?  Sure there are things in retirement, like golf or fancy vacations, that we don’t really need.  I’m not talking about that necessarily, but what about food and medical needs?  What about the power bill or visiting family for Christmas?  Do we want to become a burden on our adult children when it can be avoided?

Zvi Bodie brings up an interesting point in another place.  He suggests that we consider the fact that we are willing to pay $1000 for fire insurance for our house even though it is very unlikely that our house will burn down.  The chances are very small, yet we still pay for it.   That’s because we believe that the seriousness of not having a house outweighs the fact that it is unlikely to happen.  What good a house if I am unable to live in it in because my retirement savings has disappeared?  It doesn’t really make sense to protect the house and not protect my income.

Two Categories of Retirement Funds

Thinking about retirement in this way leads to dividing our retirement funds into two parts.  One part is the part you reasonably believe you can’t do without in your old age.  The other part is for things that you hope for, but that are not critical to your survival.  When we divide it up like this, and get insurance for the critical part, it can lead to peace of mind knowing that our critical retirement needs are guaranteed to be there for us.

Guaranteed Retirement Options

When it comes to ways to guarantee the critical part of your retirement, you might be imagining a large piggy bank or perhaps a bank CD.  If you have been reading my blog, however, you know what I think about that.  Both piggy banks and CD’s are not usually inflation protected, which means that they are not a guarantee.  They fail to be a guarantee because you don’t know what the contents of your piggy bank will buy in 30 years when you need it.

There have been CD’s that were “inflation-linked” in the past but I have not seen any in the last few years.  Hopefully, demand for them will increase and they will be offered again in the future.

Social Security

One obvious form of retirement insurance is Social Security.  It is inflation protected and it’s definitely something to consider when thinking about your critical retirement savings.  Social Security is likely to go through some changes in the future, but I expect that something very similar to it will be available for a long time to come.  There’s more about this investment in the article: Possibly the Most Popular Inflation Protected Investment.

Company or Government Pensions

If you happen to have a job that offers a pension that adjusts your payments for inflation, you are in a good position.  When I say pension, I mean the old fashioned kind that doesn’t require that you manage the money and that does provide a written guarantee.  Pensions that don’t adjust for inflation, are helpful but they don’t guarantee that you won’t run out of money to pay your expenses in the distant future.

Be Careful With Insurance Annuities

Other insurance products are provided by insurance companies by way of inflation adjusted annuities.  I would just make sure that the inflation adjustments are connected to actual inflation and not a flat percentage increase each year.  It’s important to understand how much you are paying for that insurance up front too.  Beware: Insurance companies use the word “guarantee” in a similar way that fund managers use the word “savings.”  Make sure you know what they are actually guaranteeing.  Guaranteed percentages are not the whole story.  You also need to know the exact amount of principal the percentage is calculated against.  If the principle goes down with something other than inflation, it’s not much of a guarantee.  Also remember that if the guarantee isn’t in writing, it’s still not a guarantee.  Insurance companies do and have gone out of business.  Zvi Bodie recommends splitting up your funds between companies.

Home Equity

The Equity in our homes really is a form of inflation protection.  Because a house is a physical thing that represents one of our important needs, it’s automatically inflation protected.  Its value goes up with inflation because a house is still a house no matter what the value of money is.  Just having your home paid off is big part of insuring your retirement.

This presents an option for those who have no heirs or have no other choice.  Many of us spend our lives paying the bank to own a house.  The tables can be turned.  It is possible to sell the equity to the bank and have them pay you to live in your own house.  That’s what is called a reverse mortgage.

Once again caution is needed.  Make sure to read everything in any contract to make sure that the bank isn’t taking too much for themselves in the deal.  They may woo you with assurances that the remaining equity will go to your heirs, but I am told that this is often not the case because of high fees.  Again, there’s no guarantee.

Another thing to consider is selling your house to your heirs, with permission to continue living in the house as long as you can.  Working a deal with your loved ones could be a practical option and it can be a win-win situation with them.

Inflation Protected Bonds

My favorite option is to use Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and I Bonds for savings that I want to insure.  I do have to do a bit more work myself, but fees are low or non existent.  These are just boring government bonds that usually don’t make a whole lot of interest, but they do one thing very well: they protect long-term savings from inflation and that’s what I’m looking for when it comes to protecting the critical part of my retirement savings.

Further Reading

How to Buy an I Bond
If you are ready to get some I Bonds right now and protect some of your savings, I’ve made some step-by-step instructions to help you set up your Treasury Direct account and purchase your first I bond.